[Topic-3] 人類史における人工知能の位置付け /

The Place of Artificial Intelligence in Human History

人類史における人工知能（Artificial Intelligence, AI）の位置付けについて，検討を行います．2023年末に発表した以下の論文[4][4']では，まず背景として，AIを「人類にとって最悪にして最後の発明」と捉える否定派の主張と，AIは当面の間，人類に脅威をもたらす存在にはなり得ないとする肯定派の主張を紹介しています．次に，AIが人類にとって脅威となるのか，それとも貢献者となるのかというトピックを，運転手，医師，教師の仕事を例に挙げ，これらの職業がAIによって支援される，または，代替される現状と将来について議論しています．最後に，シンギュラリティが現実化する可能性と，「富と力の源泉としての人間」という役割が失われた場合，世界がどのように変化するのかについて，考察を行っています．

This study examines the role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in human history. In the following papers [4][4'] published at the end of 2023, I first provide background by introducing the perspectives of AI skeptics, who regard AI as "humanity's worst and final invention," and AI proponents, who argue that AI is unlikely to pose a threat to humanity in the foreseeable future. Next, I explore the topic of whether AI is a threat or a contributor to humanity by using the jobs of drivers, doctors, and teachers as examples. The discussion focuses on the current state and future prospects of these professions being supported or replaced by AI. Finally, I consider the possibility of the singularity becoming a reality and how the world might change if humanity loses its role as the "source of wealth and power."

[4] 藤井雄作，“人類史における人工知能の位置付け”，社会安全とプライバシー，Vol.7, No.1, pp.1-4, 2023.
https://jjssp.e-jikei.org/ARCHIVES/vol07no01/JpnJSSP_vol07_no01_p01.pdf

[4’] Y. Fujii, “The Place of Artificial Intelligence in Human History”, Journal of Technology and Social Science, Vol.7, No.2, pp.1-5, 2023. (Translated from [4]: JpnJSSP, Vol.7, No.1, pp.1-4, 2023).
http://jtss.e-jikei.org/issue/archives/v07n02/JTSS_v07n02a001.pdf

AIの人類に対する脅威の根源は以下に集約されると考える．すなわち，人類の歴史で，世界のそれぞれの時と場所において，「人々を効率的に使った国家，仕組み」が，発展してきた．例えば，現代においては民主主義・資本主義が，人々を有効に活用して，力を持ち，一定の発展を遂げてきた．しかしながら，シンギュラリティを経たAIが登場すると，「科学技術の発展」，「新機能を持った製品の発明」，「工業生産・農業生産の実施」，が全てAIにより実行可能となり，もはや，「ヒト」が必要ではなくなる可能性が出て来る．すなわち，国家，仕組みが発展する上で，有意に立つ上で，「人々を効率的に活用する」ことが，全く不要になる．人類の歴史における，大前提「人々をより効率的に使った国家・仕組みが，他の国家・仕組みを淘汰する」が崩壊する．この後，「どのような仕組み」が地上を支配し，「民主主義・資本主義」が淘汰されていくのか？ 恐ろしい脅威が迫っていると考える．

The root of the threat AI poses to humanity can be summarized as follows: Throughout human history, at every time and place in the world, "nations and systems that efficiently utilized people" have thrived and advanced. For instance, in the modern era, democracy and capitalism have effectively harnessed human potential, gained power, and achieved significant development. However, with the advent of AI following the singularity, it may become possible for AI to handle everything, including "scientific and technological advancement," "the invention of products with new functions," and "the execution of industrial and agricultural production." This raises the potential for a future where "humans" are no longer necessary. In other words, for nations and systems to progress and gain an advantage, "efficiently utilizing people" may become entirely unnecessary. This would dismantle the fundamental premise of human history: "Nations and systems that more efficiently utilized people outcompete and eliminate others." What kind of systems will dominate the earth after this? How will "democracy and capitalism" be replaced? A terrifying threat looms ahead.

AIが人類を淘汰する可能性は，極めて重大な脅威である．しかしながら，それ以前に，ヒトでは無くAIを上手く使った国家・仕組みの出現も，また，民主主義に対する重大な脅威となる．そして，この変化は，不可逆であり，ひとたび，起こった後は，元に戻すことは不可能であることが懸念される．

The possibility of AI eliminating humanity poses an extremely grave threat. However, even before that, the emergence of nations and systems that effectively utilize AI instead of humans also represents a significant threat to democracy. Moreover, this change is irreversible, and there is concern that once it occurs, it will be impossible to revert.

AIの先行開発者には莫大な利益が期待されるため，世界中のテック企業・研究期間の研究者が莫大な研究費をつぎ込み研究開発にしのぎを削っている状況である．その先にある「人類に対する脅威」には目を瞑って，研究開発に邁進する企業・研究期間の研究者が大多数のように見える．一部で，AIの研究開発を一時停止して，AIの研究開発に有効な規制をかけるべきであるという主張もあるが，「自分が出遅れているので，時間稼ぎをしたいだけではないか」などの批判もあり，上手くはいかないようである．著者も，AIの脅威を排除するには，具体的にどうしたら良いか？分からない．このまま成り行きに任せるしかないのだろうか？

The pioneers in AI development stand to gain enormous profits, leading tech companies and research institutions worldwide to pour vast amounts of funding into fiercely competitive research and development. Many of these organizations and researchers appear to forge ahead with development while turning a blind eye to the potential "threats to humanity" that lie ahead. There are some voices advocating for a temporary pause in AI research and for implementing effective regulations to govern its development. However, these calls are often met with criticism, such as accusations that proponents are merely trying to "buy time because they are falling behind." As a result, these efforts have not been successful. The author admits to not knowing what concrete steps should be taken to eliminate the threats posed by AI. Are we left with no choice but to let things take their course?

2025年においては，人類に対する致命的脅威になりうるAIに関して，深く考察し，著名な英文学術誌に論文発表することを目指します．上記[4][4’]の学術誌，「社会安全とプライバシー」と「Journal of Social Science and Technology」は，共に，私が編集長であり，私が理事長であるNPOe自警ネットワーク研究会が出版元になります．「次の論文」は，著名な英文学術誌で発表し，広く学術的価値を認められることを目指します．このテーマは，潜在的な社会的貢献の観点からは，私の研究テーマの中で最重要ですが，当面は，「考察を続ける」，「考察の成果を論文発表する」ということで，進めていきたいと考えています．

In 2025, I aim to deeply explore AI as a potential existential threat to humanity and publish a paper on the topic in a renowned English-language academic journal. The academic journals mentioned above, "Social Safety and Privacy" and the "Journal of Social Science and Technology", are both published by the NPO Self-Monitoring Network Research Association, for which I serve as Editor-in-Chief and Chairman. The upcoming paper will aim to be published in a distinguished English-language academic journal to gain widespread academic recognition. This topic is the most critical among my research themes from the perspective of its potential societal contributions. For now, I intend to proceed by "continuing my exploration" and "publishing the results of my considerations in academic papers."